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韩国的经济研究所最近的一个提议比较有趣，认为韩国的动力电池的发展情况不尽如人意，相比中国和日本，有些逆水行舟不进则退的感觉。如下：
Korea Economic Research Institute said in a statement:
Korean car battery companies, such as LG Chem Ltd. and Samsung SDI Co., have witnessed their combined share in the global battery market plunge to 11 percent in 2018 from 30 percent in 2014, due mainly to a lack of captive buyers.
The Japanese, Chinese, and South Korean manufacturers control the battery market having over 80% share according to KERI.
KERI advised the government to purchase more EVs for the public sector, provide more subsidies to buyers of such green cars and beef up the country’s charging infrastructure. The government said it is pushing to get 250,000 EVs to the public and private sectors by 2020, while increasing investments in charging stations in major cities.
一个产业的形成和走势，有各种各样的原因。韩国的电池产业发展走势，按照 KERI 的说法已经开始落后于中日。这个论断本身正确性，相信大部分读者都有自己的判断。但是这个里面存在一些深层次的问题，产业需要有本土市场进行支撑，否则很难取得长期的稳定性。
其实从目前的各种数据来看，目前对电池企业比较开放的是美国和欧洲市场，从长远来说，欧洲目前在真正的转向电气化，如下图所示，我们可以看到 LG 在欧洲的产能扩张是真正的飞速提升，相对的美国要差点意思。这个产能扩张图其实也蕴含着很多的风险，就是上述所提的，本国的基本盘，韩国市场和韩国车企的绝对需求不足，以至于如 LG 拿下的雷诺这样的车企，在未来也要重新调整电池采购的供应链条安全：
电动汽车的增长数字并不均匀
随着车企对于之前的电池升级和后期的维护，整个需求在某段时间集中爆发，造成需求的年化数字超过了之前的预计
备注：在 Push EV 上有这个 E63 的电芯的基本 Spec
电池企业对于需求的不确定，是按照基本的保守数字去估算，慢慢提升量能，否则很容易出现放空和产能利用不足的情况，两边的差异比较大
Renault worries about battery supplies in growing EV market
Uneven battery supplies
LG, the South Korean electronics giant, started producing batteries at its new plant near Wroclaw, Poland, in the first half of 2018 with capacity to supply 100,000 electric vehicles -- double that of the original plan in 2015 when the factory was announced. Last November LG said it would invest an additional 500 million euros to support production of 300,000 electric vehicles per year by 2021.
如下所示，韩国的几家扩产是有车企背书的，也是希望把供应链都拉到欧洲去
Normand said the ramp up of production at the Wroclaw plant led to some "tension" in the supply of batteries in the first half of the year, for both new vehicles and after-sales replacements. Another factor is that predictions for EV sales were too optimistic. "In the past, we were expecting the market to grow rapidly, but the growth wasn't completely in line with initial expectations," he said. "It meant that a number of suppliers, not only LG, were not taking our planning numbers on face value." He said Renault was working with LG to ensure a more consistent flow for at least the next two years. "We have a framework," he said, "so we are very clear on what we want and they are clear on what they can supply to us."
按照远期评估，韩国三家电池制造商 LG 化学(LG Chem)、三星 SDI(Samsung SDI)和 SK 创新公司（SK Innovation）在 2018 年，按照车辆的生命周期里面，总共赢得了全球客户约 976 亿美元的电动汽车动力电池订单。按照年化 8 年分开算，每年 100 多亿美金的单子，这些订单都是从小开始拉量，必定是不均匀和持续变化的。
我觉得 KERI 的建议对韩国是有效的，可以为韩国电池产业在扩张产能创造一个基本盘市场，来保底一部分，而不是跟随着欧洲车企的需求，直接进一步提升产能。有个兄弟举了个很有趣的比喻，现在各个车企都是用卡车运来包子，现在的电池企业只能吃个几屉就吃饱了，多出来的那些对比现在的实际出货量，很多未知的因素都会起作用，蕴含着很多的变数。
小结：产能的拉升、整个销量的突破都很难出现一个指数级别的拐点，这是目前看到的一对矛盾，在这个车企描绘出来的拐点之前，我觉得仁者见仁智者见智。
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