苹果会不会免费其iPod?

苏公雨

看到一篇文章，觉得比较有意思，转帖于此，其论点：
1 在过去的几年里iPod从又大又贵演进到现在的又小又便宜，几乎垄断了整过美国的音乐播放器市场。
2 硬件的播放器只是其收入的一部分，其通过iTune Store带来的销售额比例越来越高。
 
补充一点，iPhone 2.0软件使得iPhone以及iTouch成了各种应用的平台，用户可以自己开发、销售各种应用，Apple以分成的方式获得收益，这将为Apple打开一个不可限量的盈利空间。2.0的概念在这里体现的淋漓尽致。
 
有朝一日，Apple是否可以将其iPod免费发送，只要其用户都牢牢地恋上Apple Store。这种模式不是没有可能，若干年前美国的手机运营商就将手机免费给用户，只要你签订一年的服务合同。
 
 
The not dead yet Steve Jobs introducednew iPod models Tuesday in San Francisco. Most of the attention wasdevoted to the new iPod Nano — shaped like the old iPod Mini — with abigger video screen and more capacity in two models from $149-$199. Itdid nothing with its iPod Shuffle line, priced at $49-$69.

It’s interesting to compare how far Apple has come since it introduced the first iPod back in 2001:
                                               

                        Model                       

                        Original iPodiPod Nano (4th generation)                                                        Introduction date                        Oct. 2001                        Sept. 2008                                                        Mass storage                        Hard disc                        Flash RAM                                                        Capacity                        5 gb                        8 gb                                                        Height                        102 mm                        90.7 mm                                                        Width                        61.8 mm                        38.7 mm                                                        Depth                        19.9 mm                        6.2 mm                                                        Weight                        185 g                        36.8 mm                                                        Screen                        160x128 b/w                        320x240 color                                                        Content                        Sideloaded music                        Sideloaded music, purchased music and video, rented video, podcasts                                                        Price                        $399                        $149                This is certainly a good, clear trend line for the pace of  electronics miniaturization over those seven years.
However,it does raise the question: when will iPods be free? If Apple ispursuing a razor and razor blade model, why not give away the iPods (orat least an entry-level model)?

A preview article Monday in Forbes noted the declining importance of iPod sales:

                Apple's        thriving digital content business gives Steve Jobs & Co. plenty of        room to slash the price of the iPod to keep digital music and movie        sales growing, and to use the company's increasingly powerful digital        content business as a way to segue into sales of tablet computers and        other gizmos, as it has with the iPhone.
       
        "With iPod price cuts,        Apple is choosing revenue over unit cannibalization," Credit Suisse        analyst Bill Shope wrote in a research note Monday.
       
        To be sure,        Apple's lineup of digital music players could use a boost. IPod sales        are up just 7% from the year-ago period. In part, that's just the law        of large numbers at work. However, fresh designs, coupled with a price        cut, could reignite demand for the stylish gadgets and keep customers        rolling into Apple's increasingly lucrative iTunes store.
       
        That's        a business with a strong future ahead of it, even as the hardware        business that launched it slows. Apple reported that sales of "other        music-related products and services"--chiefly iTunes content--jumped        34.7% to $819 million for the quarter ending in June from $608 million        during the year-ago period.       

So if the trend of iPods is cheaper and a smaller portion of the company’s revenue stream, why not give one away?

Asa practical matter, it will probably never happen, because thecross-subsidy is imperfect. The closest thing we have to a perfectcross-subsidy is the videogame console, where Sony or Microsoft orNintendo capture royalties on every videogame to pay back thesubsidized console. Even so, a few hackers figure out how to use an Xbox as a Linux box rather than a royalty stream for Redmond.

Togive away an iPod, it would have to be useless except for playingiTunes content, and that’s not likely to happen. The company could sellan iPod for $100 with a $100 iTunes store gift card, but if it wasn’tlocked to that iPod then the buyer would just sell the card on the openmarket. And there’s always the problem of multiple freebies per person,which seems to be why razor blade handles are no longer free.

There’salso the fact that Apple sees itself as a premium brand, and you nevercheapen the brand. The closest they’ve come is to give away nearlystale iPods (i.e. a month before they become obsolete) withback-to-school laptop sales, which is more of a bundle than “free.”

Instead, Apple is holding its price points while the rest of the industry commoditizes, and is intent on proving what a good price discriminator it is, squeezing the maximum revenue out of every sale. Moving up from 8gb to 16gb will cost you $50 for an iPod Nano but $70 for an iPod Touch. Is the memory more expensive? No, people will pay more.

Still,the $400 price point became $150 after about 5 years, and I suspect itwon't be long that there will be an under $100 device that plays video.So for most teenagers and their parents, under $100 is closed to animpulse buy.