DRAM市场依然动荡不安

新闻我最牛

加州--DRAM制造能力已经远远超过了OEM需求。

这是2007年下半年一项主要生产能力过剩的信号吗？鉴于目前消费市场的格局动荡，答案也是众说纷纭。

凭借512mb市场，Bit增长了近20%，占过去的2/4.Semico研究公司表示，但是如果DRAM存储继续保持目前的剩余状态，还会有7年高速增长期。

过去几年，DRAM厂商面临通过空闲fab减少供给或者增加产出减少每个设备平均消耗的抉择。

幸好，作为大容量商用存储产品的NAND出现给生产厂商提供了另外一个选择。因为NAND和DRAM的制造工艺非常相似，许多拥有足够资产的存储厂商都在两者之间互换。

“2007年下半年已经证实DRAM供求分析已经不能和NAND分析结果分割开来”，Semico公司分析师Bob Merritt说，“iPhone对NAND的大量需求，使得它的价格已经和DRAM相差无几”。

另外一个对于这两种存储技术平衡的巨大影响就是“小型DRAM存储容量的上升空间”。

DRAM market remains dynamic

(10/17/2007 11:06 H EDT)

SAN JOSE, Calif. — DRAM manufacturing capacity has clearly exceeded OEM demand.

But does this signal a major overcapacity situation in the second half of 2007? There are no easy answers, based on the current dynamics in the marketplace.

Bit growth has increased at approximately 20 percent for the past two quarters — mostly on the strength of the 512-megabit market, according to Semico Research Corp. But if DRAM capacity remains exactly flat with no increase in capacity for the remainder of 2007, DRAM bit growth will still achieve highest growth rate in 7 years, according to the firm.

In previous years, DRAM manufacturers were faced with the choices of idling the fabs in order to reduce the supply or continuing to increase their output in order to reduce their average cost per device.

However the rise of NAND as a high volume commodity memory product has presented another variable to the memory manufacturers. Because of the manufacturing similarities between NAND and DRAM, some memory manufacturers have the option of shifting enough resources between the two products to impact the total production.

"The second half of 2007 clearly establishes that the analysis of DRAM supply and demand can no longer be separated from a coordinated and linked analysis of NAND conditions," said Bob Merritt, an analyst with Semico, in a statement. "The demand and production ramp for NAND in iPhones is now directly linked to the DRAM cost and availability for Vista."

One new impact from this new market equation has already been seen. "DRAM capacity is building in the supply channels in anticipation of tighter DRAM supply in the fourth quarter," he said.